I am going to make a bold prediction: John McCain is going to win on Tuesday and he is going to win BIG! Are you delusional? No. This is based on facts and conditions that I have seen and experienced while working closely with the McCain Campaign in the last few weeks. I believe there is an impending wave of support from a silent majority out there that will soon have it's voice heard. Let me explain what I mean.
First: Oversampling and assumptions by the pollsters: More than any other campaign in history this election has been very challenging for the pollsters. The main reason for this is according to reports up to 80% of respondents are refusing to tell them who they are voting for! Pollsters are having a very tough time getting people to share with them. The reason is the whole "cult of personality" that has been created around Obama and also the "racist" tag that is being applied to anyone who is NOT voting for Obama. People don't want to be labeled a racist and they also don't want to be known as the people that didn't vote for "the Messiah". The fact that Obama would be the first black President is a major consideration with some voters.
Second: Don't underestimate the angry Democrat vote out there. I have met more Democrats in the last months that are extremely angry with what happened to Hillary Clinton and the way that the Obama Campaign treated her than I can recall in recent memory. They are in very heavy numbers planning to vote for McCain. They know that if McCain gets in Hillary can run in 2012. However, if Obama gets in she would need to wait until 2016 and she would be much older by then. I also believe that the Clinton Machine is working behind the scenes to ensure that Obama does not control the Democratic Party in the future which he would if he wins.
Third: Momentum. Simply put, Presidential Campaigns live and die on momentum; the Big MO'! In the past 2 weeks John McCain has surged more than 10 points or more in some of the key Battleground States and the Mo' continues to this day. In contrast, Obama has been hemorrhaging votes and is now fighting to hold onto territory that he thought he had won: Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Ohio. Couple this with the fact that historically Obama is not a great closer and you have the makings of an historical comeback by John McCain. And remember, the polls are skewed due to the 80% non-responsive voters. The lead in these polls could be bigger, much bigger than is being reported now.
Fourth: The nervous media. There has never been a Presidential Campaign that has seen an utter lack of objectivity from the Main Stream Media (MSM) than this one has. Even the latest research shows that the MSM has overwhelmingly gone out of it's way to ensure that Obama has the more positive coverage and that McCain has the more negative coverage. (See the following study: http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_press_8.htm). But the interesting thing that I have seen (that now has been documented) is that virtually ALL MSM media outlets have begun to call the election for Obama in the last few weeks even though people are engaging in early voting as we speak! The main reason behind this strategy is to suppress the vote and make Republican voters depressed and dispirited. They will think that Obama is going to win in a landslide anyway so there is really no reason for them to take the time to vote. In other words: it's a forgone conclusion that Obama is going to win. This is not the first time this strategy has been used however. In the 2000 Presidential Election the MSM called Florida for Al Gore BEFORE the people in the Florida Panhandle, historically Republican-leaning territory, had a chance to get to the polls. By some studies this caused some 50-80,000 voters to stay home and not go to the polls. Florida was won by just 367 votes! The media did their best to help Al Gore and they got caught. Thankfully, the state eventually went to Bush after the Supreme Court intervened. The MSM this time around however is "all in" to use a poker term and they have bet the house that they can pull this off. However, if you start to read between the lines, they are starting to doubt that they have done all they can do and as the research shows the American People have see right through their scheme.
First: Oversampling and assumptions by the pollsters: More than any other campaign in history this election has been very challenging for the pollsters. The main reason for this is according to reports up to 80% of respondents are refusing to tell them who they are voting for! Pollsters are having a very tough time getting people to share with them. The reason is the whole "cult of personality" that has been created around Obama and also the "racist" tag that is being applied to anyone who is NOT voting for Obama. People don't want to be labeled a racist and they also don't want to be known as the people that didn't vote for "the Messiah". The fact that Obama would be the first black President is a major consideration with some voters.
Second: Don't underestimate the angry Democrat vote out there. I have met more Democrats in the last months that are extremely angry with what happened to Hillary Clinton and the way that the Obama Campaign treated her than I can recall in recent memory. They are in very heavy numbers planning to vote for McCain. They know that if McCain gets in Hillary can run in 2012. However, if Obama gets in she would need to wait until 2016 and she would be much older by then. I also believe that the Clinton Machine is working behind the scenes to ensure that Obama does not control the Democratic Party in the future which he would if he wins.
Third: Momentum. Simply put, Presidential Campaigns live and die on momentum; the Big MO'! In the past 2 weeks John McCain has surged more than 10 points or more in some of the key Battleground States and the Mo' continues to this day. In contrast, Obama has been hemorrhaging votes and is now fighting to hold onto territory that he thought he had won: Virginia, Missouri, Florida, Ohio. Couple this with the fact that historically Obama is not a great closer and you have the makings of an historical comeback by John McCain. And remember, the polls are skewed due to the 80% non-responsive voters. The lead in these polls could be bigger, much bigger than is being reported now.
Fourth: The nervous media. There has never been a Presidential Campaign that has seen an utter lack of objectivity from the Main Stream Media (MSM) than this one has. Even the latest research shows that the MSM has overwhelmingly gone out of it's way to ensure that Obama has the more positive coverage and that McCain has the more negative coverage. (See the following study: http://www.cmpa.com/media_room_press_8.htm). But the interesting thing that I have seen (that now has been documented) is that virtually ALL MSM media outlets have begun to call the election for Obama in the last few weeks even though people are engaging in early voting as we speak! The main reason behind this strategy is to suppress the vote and make Republican voters depressed and dispirited. They will think that Obama is going to win in a landslide anyway so there is really no reason for them to take the time to vote. In other words: it's a forgone conclusion that Obama is going to win. This is not the first time this strategy has been used however. In the 2000 Presidential Election the MSM called Florida for Al Gore BEFORE the people in the Florida Panhandle, historically Republican-leaning territory, had a chance to get to the polls. By some studies this caused some 50-80,000 voters to stay home and not go to the polls. Florida was won by just 367 votes! The media did their best to help Al Gore and they got caught. Thankfully, the state eventually went to Bush after the Supreme Court intervened. The MSM this time around however is "all in" to use a poker term and they have bet the house that they can pull this off. However, if you start to read between the lines, they are starting to doubt that they have done all they can do and as the research shows the American People have see right through their scheme.
Fifth: The Independent vote: Historically when things are bad people choose the "sure thing" rather than roll the dice on the unknown. With the uncertainty and volatility that exists in the world these days people are looking for their "baby blanket" to make them feel safe. John McCain is that blanket. (Now that's a visual) They KNOW McCain, they trust McCain, they have witnessed his record over decades and they know that he will not take us off a cliff while the world is searching for answers. He might not be an exciting candidate but he is the "sure thing" this time around. They know that out of the two he will do LESS damage if things go awry.
Finally: Obama has failed to close the deal. If the American People really thought that things were so bad that they needed to drastically change things then why hasn't Obama put this thing away? He should be 20 points of more ahead in the polls and yet he is more like 2 or 3 or 5 points ahead. That does not bode well for him as it suggests that there is a large segment of people out there that still don't trust him and are reluctant to swing in his direction. As I said before he is a bad closer and it shows. The truth is people have second thoughts about this guy and they don't think he is the best choice at a time of such uncertainty in the world. They understand that he will have many more chances to run again and this will give them time to get to know him a bit. For now he is an unknown commodity and it makes people nervous. This, I believe will show, come November 4th.
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2 comments:
Amen to that!!! We are going to win big!!!
Mustard Man - This is your friend The Black Sphere, and all I can say is from your scribe to God's eyes! Like you, I am hopeful that the overpolling has skewed things a bit, and more importantly, they have underestimated the true conscience of America. Dare I say I hope even the Aryan rocks the vote on this one, and you know that this brotha doesn't condone racism on any front. But whether it's the Catholics, the smarter Jews, the right-leaning Moderates, or Harlem rats, I hope they all vote and shove this one down the media's and Obama's throat.
Nice blog my man. You are finding your voice!
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